Inverse approach to estimating larval dispersal reveals limited population connectivity along 700 km of wave-swept open coast.

Demographic connectivity is fundamental to the persistence and resilience of metapopulations, but our understanding of the link between reproduction and recruitment is notoriously poor in open-coast marine populations. We provide the first evidence of high local retention and limited connectivity among populations spanning 700 km along an open coast in an upwelling system. Using extensive field measurements of fecundity, population size and settlement in concert with a Bayesian inverse modelling approach, we estimated that, on average, Petrolisthes cinctipes larvae disperse only 6.9 km (±25.0 km s.d.) from natal populations, despite spending approximately six weeks in an open-coast system that was once assumed to be broadly dispersive. This estimate differed substantially from our prior dispersal estimate (153.9 km) based on currents and larval duration and behaviour, revealing the importance of employing demographic data in larval dispersal estimates. Based on this estimate, we predict that demographic connectivity occurs predominantly among neighbouring populations less than 30 km apart. Comprehensive studies of larval production, settlement and connectivity are needed to advance an understanding of the ecology and evolution of life in the sea as well as to conserve ecosystems. Our novel approach provides a tractable framework for addressing these questions for species occurring in discrete coastal populations.

Effect of elevated pCO2 on metabolic responses of porcelain crab (Petrolisthes cinctipes) Larvae exposed to subsequent salinity stress.

Future climate change is predicted to alter the physical characteristics of oceans and estuaries, including pH, temperature, oxygen, and salinity. Investigating how species react to the influence of such multiple stressors is crucial for assessing how future environmental change will alter marine ecosystems. The timing of multiple stressors can also be important, since in some cases stressors arise simultaneously, while in others they occur in rapid succession. In this study, we investigated the effects of elevated pCO2 on oxygen consumption by larvae of the intertidal porcelain crab Petrolisthes cinctipes when exposed to subsequent salinity stress. Such an exposure mimics how larvae under future acidified conditions will likely experience sudden runoff events such as those that occur seasonally along portions of the west coast of the U.S. and in other temperate systems, or how larvae encounter hypersaline waters when crossing density gradients via directed swimming. We raised larvae in the laboratory under ambient and predicted future pCO2 levels (385 and 1000 µatm) for 10 days, and then moved them to seawater at ambient pCO2 but with decreased, ambient, or elevated salinity, to monitor their respiration. While larvae raised under elevated pCO2 or exposed to stressful salinity conditions alone did not exhibit higher respiration rates than larvae held in ambient conditions, larvae exposed to elevated pCO2 followed by stressful salinity conditions consumed more oxygen. These results show that even when multiple stressors act sequentially rather than simultaneously, they can retain their capacity to detrimentally affect organisms.

The role of temperature in determining species' vulnerability to ocean acidification: a case study using Mytilus galloprovincialis.

Ocean acidification (OA) is occurring across a backdrop of concurrent environmental changes that may in turn influence species' responses to OA. Temperature affects many fundamental biological processes and governs key reactions in the seawater carbonate system. It therefore has the potential to offset or exacerbate the effects of OA. While initial studies have examined the combined impacts of warming and OA for a narrow range of climate change scenarios, our mechanistic understanding of the interactive effects of temperature and OA remains limited. Here, we use the blue mussel, Mytilus galloprovincialis, as a model species to test how OA affects the growth of a calcifying invertebrate across a wide range of temperatures encompassing their thermal optimum. Mussels were exposed in the laboratory to a factorial combination of low and high pCO2 (400 and 1200 µatm CO2) and temperatures (12, 14, 16, 18, 20, and 24°C) for one month. Results indicate that the effects of OA on shell growth are highly dependent on temperature. Although high CO2 significantly reduced mussel growth at 14°C, this effect gradually lessened with successive warming to 20°C, illustrating how moderate warming can mediate the effects of OA through temperature's effects on both physiology and seawater geochemistry. Furthermore, the mussels grew thicker shells in warmer conditions independent of CO2 treatment. Together, these results highlight the importance of considering the physiological and geochemical interactions between temperature and carbonate chemistry when interpreting species' vulnerability to OA.

Nearshore larval retention in a region of strong upwelling and recruitment limitation.

The ability of miniscule larvae to control their fate and replenish populations in dynamic marine environments has been a long-running topic of debate of central importance for managing resources and understanding the ecology and evolution of life in the sea. Larvae are considered to be highly susceptible to offshore transport in productive upwelling regions, thereby increasing dispersal, limiting onshore recruitment, and reducing the intensity of community interactions. We show that 45 species of nearshore crustaceans were not transported far offshore in a recruitment-limited region characterized by strong upwelling. To the contrary, 92% of these larvae remained within 6 km from shore in high densities throughout development along two transects sampled four times during the peak upwelling season. Larvae of most species remained nearshore by remaining below a shallow Ekman layer of seaward-flowing surface waters throughout development. Larvae of other species migrated farther offshore by occurring closer to the surface early in development. Postlarvae evidently returned to nearshore adult habitats either by descending to shoreward-flowing upwelled waters or rising to the sea surface where they can be transported shoreward by wind relaxation events or internal waves. Thus wind-driven offshore transport should not limit recruitment, even in strong upwelling regions, and larvae are more likely to recruit closer to natal populations than is widely believed. This study poses a new challenge to determine the true cause and extent of recruitment limitation for a more diverse array of species along upwelling coasts, and thus to further advance our understanding of the connectivity, dynamics, and structure of coastal populations.